“The current situation has what might be analogized as ‘a variety of heads’, if we employ the figurative image of a monster to illustrate various aspects of threat. Each head has peculiar features of real and potential threat, as well as both somewhat predictable and unpredictable developmental futures.
We will here outline a few of the more obvious categories of threat and some of the real or potential consequences. As we are here concerned primarily with threats, we will not be outlining benefits — however, it should be clear that each of these shadows has polarities that may result in various actual or possible benefits. For example, the fact that our culture (in many parts of the US) is sheltering in place means that, for the moment, the animals, insects, fish, birds and living environments are going to experience a period of significantly less ambient threat.
1. The virus itself. We are still learning about the nature of this threat and the various means we may employ in our attempts to mitigate it. The primary hope is for a vaccine; however, useful treatments are also a powerful palliative, when and where we acquire them.
2. The reactions of the societies. This includes governments, health-care infrastructure, corporations, religions, social and/or fraternal organizations, the police, the military, and so on. The reactions of our relatively naive societies have the capacity to mitigate, enhance, or generate new threats. Some of the activities of societal players will have unexpected or even unimaginable consequences.
»As the occupants of cities are incredibly vulnerable to supply-line disruption, we must act intelligently together in order to avert unintended catastrophic repercussions of the disruptions that are presently in early-phase evidence.
3. Common people, groups and public or covert organizations. These also have the capacity to mitigate, enhance, or generate threat. While there are intelligent players within this category, there are also wildly unpredictable, dangerous, or highly opportunistic elements that we should expect to either generate direct threats or to capitalize on fear, chaos, scarcity and violence. Like head 5 (International and Private Adventurism), we should be aware that some individuals, groups and covert organizations may attempt to take advantage of the present situation in ways that are both relatively obvious and almost totally unexpected.
4. Co-variable Consequences: These are otherwise ordinary and extraordinary situations and events that, due to the present circumstances, are far more dangerous than they might ordinarily be. These include other diseases, natural disasters, accidents, fires, earthquakes, famines, floods, droughts, infestations, and so on.
This threat also has a uniquely local and/or personal aspect: accidents, diseases and injuries that might otherwise be relatively trivial can, in this situation, be vastly more serious or lethal. For this reason we should proceed with our daily lives »as though medical attention was either rare or unobtainable. Recall that not very long ago, a broken limb could easily escalate into a fatal situation.
5. International and Private Adventurism: It should be clear that the present situation comprises a window of opportunity for those who have harbored a grudge of any kind; but, particularly for those nations who house factions that intend to cause wide-scale harm or devastation. At present, nearly all nations are presently distracted by this unexpected development; and we are thus extraordinarily vulnerable to a formidable array of assaults that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to successfully execute.
As more information becomes available, we will continue to disseminate it in accordance with our intention to outline both the obvious and occluded aspects of the present situation. In the coming days, we will publish new and expanded documents relating to these elements. This document is intended as an aid to directing awareness and attention, and is not meant to be exhaustive or predictive about present or future circumstances.
We invite the public to comment upon and expand the elements and details of this preliminary set of observations.”
— an intelligence agent
0 Comments