https://meaningness.com/metablog/how-to-think

“My answer to “If not Bayesianism, then what?” is: all of human intellectual effort. Figuring out how things work, what’s true or false, what’s effective or useless, is “human complete.” In other words, it’s unboundedly difficult, and every human intellectual faculty must be brought to bear.3 We could call the study of that enterprise “epistemology”; and “rationality” is a collection of methods for it.4

Mostly, we have no idea how people figure things out. The answer is certainly not going to be some simple bit of math like Bayes’ Rule. We’re not going to get a complete story any time soon. What we can do—what I was hoping to do with “How to think real good”—is find heuristics; rules of thumb that often work in particular sorts of situations.”